On May 9th, Marco Propato and Jonathan Clough presented a webinar demonstrating the Uncertainty Analysis capabilities of the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) through the EBM Tools Network. We are very grateful to the EBM Tools Network for hosting this event, as it allowed us to reach out to many current and potential SLAMM users and provide an update on the newest capabilities built into the model.
A summary of the presentation is provided below, along with a link to the webinar for those who were unable to attend …or who liked it so much you want to watch it again!
Predictive models are always affected by uncertainties. There is not one “right” prediction, rather there is a distribution of possible future results. The recent integration of a stochastic uncertainty analysis module to the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) allows users to examine wetland coverage results as distributions and can improve the decision making process. This addition to the SLAMM interface makes it possible to examine the effects of uncertainty and data errors in model parameters, including sea level rise, uplift/subsidence, tide ranges, and accretion and erosion rates, as well as feedbacks between sea level rise and accretion. Uncertainty in the elevation data layer can be assessed while considering issues such as the spatial-autocorellation of measurement errors. Results account for uncertainties in input parameters and driving variables, provide a range of possible outcomes and their likelihood, and allow model users to evaluate the robustness of deterministic results. A stand-alone program, the SLAMM Uncertainty Viewer, was developed with funding from Ducks Unlimited in order to simplify uncertainty output for end users, analysts, and decision makers. The SLAMM Uncertainty Viewer provides a map-based interface that analyzes future wetland-coverage probabilities for a user-defined region. Graphical outputs from the viewer provide quantitative results that can assist in planning and decision-making.
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